US election: "I don't think he can be controlled"

Increasingly impatient voters expressed their dissatisfaction with both the economy and illegal immigration. This could be how Donald Trump's electoral victory is interpreted, according to political scientist Stefan Borg. Now, four years with an unpredictable American president await.

Republican Donald Trump wins over Democrat Kamala Harris to become the next President of the United States. This is despite facing several indictments, including those related to election interference and his actions during the 2021 Capitol riot.

According to Stefan Borg, associate professor at the Department of Political Science at the Swedish Defence University, specialising in American foreign, security and defence policy, there are primarily three important reasons for the electoral victory.

"The first is that Trump has benefited from a trend we see in many countries, where the party in power tends to lose. Voters are increasingly impatient and want to see results from implemented policies, and it's difficult for a party that holds governmental power to maintain it," says Stefan Borg.

Polarisation around foreign policy

Being strongly associated with the Biden administration has been a disadvantage for Kamala Harris, according to many analysts. This tendency has been reinforced by many Americans' belief that the U.S. is on the wrong track under Biden, Borg states. The economy plays a role here too.

"Although the Biden administration has managed the recovery from the pandemic relatively well compared to other countries, American voters have been dissatisfied with high inflation, even though it has been decreasing. It has been incredibly difficult for Harris to distance herself from this widespread dissatisfaction," Borg adds.

A third reason for Trump's electoral success, Borg believes, is immigration.

"Voters have become more dissatisfied with extensive illegal migration. Democratic voters were previously much more positive about large-scale migration, but support has significantly decreased," says Borg.

Food and gasoline prices seem to have played a much larger role for American voters than issues like democracy and the principles of the rule of law. But Donald Trump has made clear where he stands, Borg believes.

"It's quite evident that Trump, both in words and deeds, does not seem to have much respect for the American constitutional system, viewing it more like a businessman would see running a company."

Risks to rule of law principles

Looking ahead, there is concern that Trump might try to use the judicial system to take revenge on his adversaries, according to Stefan Borg. His nomination of Matt Gaetz as Attorney General is not a good sign.

"It would be extremely unfortunate to undermine the trust that is necessary for a rule of law to function in this way," Borg states.

Stefan Borg has researched ideological polarisation in the American electorate. When polarisation is discussed, the counterargument often made is that the U.S. has been polarised before. However, measurements over time show that the population has never been as polarised as it is today. Everyday life has become politicised: not only do people live in different places, they shop in different stores and watch different TV programs.

Traditionally, there has been quite a consensus across party lines regarding American foreign and security policy. However, this too is increasingly falling within the scope of polarisation, according to Stefan Borg. In the 2016 primary campaign, Trump was the first prominent Republican to clearly distance himself from the Iraq War.

"He spoke of it as a huge fraud against the American people. It was as if the floodgates opened. The war on terrorism in Iraq and Afghanistan, which had been going on for many years and cost vast American resources and lives, became very unpopular even among Republicans who had difficulty distancing themselves from it," says Stefan Borg.

Unpredictable policy ahead

Americans with lower education and in rural areas have traditionally often been negative about U.S. interventions abroad. Since this is a voter group that Republicans have worked hard to attract, Borg believes that the shift in attitude within the Republican Party is here to stay.

The American president has great power over the country's foreign and security policy. At the same time, the policy is reactive based on what happens in the world.

"For the incoming administration, the agenda will soon go out the window. Everything depends on what happens in the world. Also, given Trump's unpredictability, his personality – I don't think he can be controlled by any Republican faction. In the end, Trump does what he wants," Borg states.

Donald Trump's leadership style is characterised by two things, according to Stefan Borg: unpredictability and uncertainty about which principles he bases his policies on, and a short-term view of American self-interests. Many NATO countries are now worried about how the new president will affect cooperation in NATO.

"International politics thrives on a high degree of predictability, and that is something Trump radically undermines. Many would undoubtedly have preferred a Harris administration. However, European governments are now, unlike in 2016, prepared in a different way."

Especially many question marks exist regarding Russia's invasion war in Ukraine. During the election campaign, Donald Trump consistently emphasised that the war should end quickly under his presidency. How this will be achieved is unclear, and concerns have been raised that it could mean Ukraine having to cede territory to Russia. According to Stefan Borg, a conflict about this is ongoing within Trump's sphere.

"I definitely think there will be many loyalists to the 'Make America Great Again (MAGA)' agenda in a new Trump administration, but surely also Republicans who stand up more for a traditional view of American security policy. And that will have consequences for the American line towards Russia and Ukraine."

Culture war over the Ukraine issue

The view of China as a rival to the U.S. now unites Republicans and Democrats in Congress. That strategic focus should lie there instead of on counter-terrorism and Russia is something the parties agree on. However, the attitude towards Russia and Ukraine in recent years has increasingly been drawn into a sort of culture war, Borg believes.

"The Biden administration's big narrative about the world is that we are in a struggle between democracies and authoritarian states. Already in 2022, there was a major shift, when Biden more or less implied that the MAGA movement, and not just Trump, is an authoritarian, almost fascist movement," says Stefan Borg.

While traditional Republicans think this is an unfortunate narrative about American politics, many conservative figures have expressed a different opinion.

"For example, Tucker Carlson, who sees Russia as a sort of counterbalance to what he thinks the Biden administration represents and which is woke. Russia is associated more with traditional values which he thinks conservative America has more in common with."

Focus on Asia and China

At the same time, Stefan Borg points out, it should not be interpreted as if Republican voters or politicians have any greater sympathies for Putin. And it's not all about culture wars or values.

"The overarching line that conservative defense debaters have strongly pressed is that the U.S. has limited resources, and therefore must necessarily focus on Asia and China by necessity."

How might Sweden be affected under the new Trump administration? In daily contacts, there probably won't be much difference, if one goes by how it was during Donald Trump's last presidency, Borg reasons.

"But I think it will be more important than ever for Sweden to show that it is helpful in American security policy even when it comes to China. Because that's where their focus will lie."