How great powers create and maintain their influence

Great powers use military, political and economic means to strengthen their influence over other countries and limit the presence of rivals. This is shown by Magnus Hilding Lundström in his doctoral thesis in political science at the Swedish Defence University.

In his thesis, Magnus Hilding Lundström examines how great powers establish and maintain spheres of influence, and the strategies they use to shape other states’ room for manoeuvre. He has studied the actions of the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia in Latin America, the Middle East and the South Pacific.

A sphere of influence is a geographical area in which a powerful state considers itself entitled to exercise, or seeks to establish, a particularly high degree of influence. This may, for example, involve influencing the foreign and security policies of smaller states while at the same time limiting the influence of other great powers in the region.

Multiple ways of exercising influence

One of the thesis’s key findings is that great powers use a wide range of methods to establish and maintain control over a sphere of influence. These may include military threats and covert interventions, as well as alliances, security guarantees, economic assistance and sanctions.

These methods are often used in combination and may serve different purposes. A great power may seek to influence countries within its own sphere of influence while simultaneously attempting to keep competing great powers out.

“Spheres of influence are maintained in many different and complementary ways. They involve both military threats and coercion, as well as alliances, security guarantees and economic measures”, says Magnus Hilding Lundström.

In the thesis, he also presents a tool for analysing different ways of exercising influence. The methods are categorised according to whether or not they involve coercion and whether they are intended to control countries within the area or to keep other great powers out.

“The tool can contribute to a better understanding of how different spheres of influence work and of the relationship between the great power and the smaller states”, says Magnus Hilding Lundström.

Different reasons for wanting a sphere of influence

The thesis also shows that there may be several reasons why a state seeks to establish or maintain a sphere of influence. It may be a matter of tangible political and security benefits. However, a sphere of influence can also confer status and strengthen a country’s international standing.

“Governments may see tangible benefits in spheres of influence, but they can also have social value through the status they confer. In the US case during the Cold War, the sphere of influence often appears to have been a means rather than an end”, says Magnus Hilding Lundström.

US influence in Latin America during the Cold War, for example, formed part of the country’s broader global strategy. At the same time, the research shows that a sphere of influence cannot be understood without taking into account the time and place in which it emerges.

“If you examine a government’s motives and actions without taking the surrounding circumstances into account, there is a risk that the analysis will be misleading”, he says.

A contemporary phenomenon

The thesis is based on four qualitative studies analysing different Anglo-American governments and foreign policy contexts between 1945 and 2024. Magnus Hilding Lundström has primarily analysed archival material to examine how government representatives and officials have viewed the regions they regarded as their spheres of influence. He hopes that the findings can contribute to a more nuanced discussion of spheres of influence.

“By highlighting the agency of decision-makers, we can counter both myth-making and overly simplistic explanations. The hope is also that analysts and decision-makers will take both the phenomenon and the concept of spheres of influence more seriously as subjects of analysis”, he says.