Geopolitics

The research project is divided into two parts - great power rivalry and narrative geopolitics.

Great power rivalry

The purpose of the project is to contribute knowledge about the great powers and their interaction and growing rivalry, as well as to identify the consequences for Sweden.

The research is conducted within three partially overlapping and mutually reinforcing strands, focusing on: (i) the system level; (ii) the actor level; and (iii) the regional level.

At the system level, great power rivalry is analysed as a product of factors operating at the most complex level of international politics. This includes issues related to war and peace in the international system, but also global matters such as climate change, nuclear proliferation, pandemics, trade, and more.

At the actor level, great power rivalry is analysed as a product of the individual great powers, primarily the United States, China and Russia.

At the regional level, the focus is on key arenas of interaction between the great powers, particularly Europe and the Indo-Pacific. In both regions, great power rivalry is already unfolding, and its intensity is expected to increase.

The project analyses what drives antagonism and military rivalry within each region, as well as what can be learned from how states have so far managed such dynamics. Each research strand employs a wide range of social science theories and methods. Key questions include:
(1) What changes are taking place at the system level in international politics, and what implications do these have for great power rivalry?
(2) How and why do China, Russia and the United States develop military capabilities, doctrines and security and defence policies over time?
(3) How and why are Europe and the Indo-Pacific affected by great power rivalry, and to what extent is such rivalry managed within each region?
(4) What opportunities and risks can be identified for Sweden in relation to developments in the international system, in key great powers, and in strategically important regions?

Narrative geopolitics

A range of actors create and disseminate narratives in order to influence how events, themselves and others are perceived nationally and internationally.

Narratives are defined as sequentially structured discourses that link events together in a meaningful way and thereby offer insights into the world and/or people’s experiences of it. These stories highlight central actors, their characteristics and their actions. By juxtaposing “heroes” and “villains”, they construct positive and negative identities. In this way, narratives position oneself and others in the past, present and future.

Narratives within and beyond international politics also tend to be emotional – that is, they channel and mobilise collective emotions. This often involves fear and pride, but emotions such as shame, humiliation and resentment are also common. Emotions are here understood as conveyed through narratives.

By establishing causal relationships and drawing lessons from narratively mediated experiences and memories, well-established and widely disseminated narratives are assumed to structure the actions of states and other international actors.

Research on narratives in international politics shows that states and other actors sometimes go to war or use force as a result of the dominant narratives. However, this research has so far been limited to qualitative case studies of individual states’ foreign, security or defence policy, or of a single bilateral relationship. It has also largely neglected the fact that narratives now spread rapidly and across vast distances via social media and other online platforms, shaping more complex phenomena within international politics.

There is a gap in existing research regarding how, and in what ways, the spread of narratives may shape system-level phenomena such as great power relations (including alliance dynamics and the prevalence of war and peace) and world order. This is the core of narrative geopolitics as understood in this project. Outstanding questions include:
(1) How do narratively mediated emotions arise, spread and change?
(2) How do they enable or constrain great power relations and international politics?

The project focuses on individual great powers and their narratives, and on how – and with what consequences – great power narratives are accepted and disseminated by other actors. It also analyses how the international diffusion of narratives affects system-level phenomena such as great power relations (including alliance relationships and the presence of war and peace) and world order.