Peter Haldén receives the Hugo Raab Award 2025

Peter Haldén, Associate Professor of War Studies at the Swedish Defence University, receives the 2025 Hugo Raab Award for his book Worlds of Uncertainty: War, Philosophies and Projects for Order, published by Cambridge University Press.

“I’m delighted to be recognised and appreciated, both by the assessment committee and by my colleagues,” says Peter Haldén, who is receiving the prize for the second time.

Surprise, uncertainty and unpredictability

In the book, Haldén explores how humanity has viewed uncertainty and unpredictability throughout history.

“In the wake of the surprise attacks in Israel on 7 October 2023, the war in Ukraine and the Covid-19 pandemic, many people feel that we live in a more uncertain and unpredictable world. But that perception depends very much on the perspective one takes,” he says, and continues:

“If we compare our situation with that of the 1450s, today’s world is by no means more unpredictable. We can rely on timetables when we travel, transfer money across the globe with confidence, and access vast amounts of information and communication tools, to name just a few examples.”

Two fundamental worldviews

Through historical analysis, Haldén shows that modern societies are in fact largely predictable, since people create order and stability through laws, norms, trust and cooperation. He describes two fundamental worldviews that have shaped Western thought since the Renaissance: one sees the world as knowable and governed by laws and patterns, making it possible to foresee the future; the other views the world as ruled by chance, inherently unpredictable and full of surprises.

Between these extremes lies, according to Haldén, a more realistic position – the recognition that while the world is uncertain, people can find practical ways of managing uncertainty.

“Our capacity for creating control is very strong. Surprises pass, especially when we take measures to master them,” he says.

Prize citation

"Peter Haldén is awarded the 2025 Hugo Raab Award for his monograph Worlds of Uncertainty: War, Philosophies and Projects for Order (Cambridge UP, 2023). The work deepens discussions of ontological certainty and uncertainty in light of strategic rationality through its engagement with thinkers such as Machiavelli, Hume, Clausewitz, Luhmann and Dewey.

Haldén takes bold intellectual steps, challenging his own judgement as an intellectual historian. Through empirical explorations ranging from plague-ridden Europe to today’s war in Ukraine, he demonstrates how the ontologies of certainty and uncertainty have coexisted from the Middle Ages to the present, alongside a pragmatic middle ground whose philosophical foundations he introduces to the reader. The author ultimately recommends this pragmatic caution and sobriety as a valuable stance for today’s decision-makers.

Haldén’s work is marked by great erudition and pedagogical skill, inviting reflection and discussion across the social sciences."